According to recent estimates by Morgan Stanley, casino resorts in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) might achieve annual gross gaming revenue (GGR) ranging from $3 billion to $5 billion, possibly competing with Singapore in that regard. 

The bank didn’t specify the number of gaming venues needed to reach $5 billion. UAE regulators have yet to officially endorse casino gaming, but Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN) earlier this year commenced construction on its Wynn Al Marjan Island integrated resort in Ras Al Khaimah (RAK). It is anticipated to be the first licensed casino hotel in the Arab region. Recently, MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) announced its intention to seek a gaming license in Abu Dhabi.

"We benchmark RAK and its closest large international airport/city Dubai to Singapore,” noted Morgan Stanley analysts. “Bottom-line, RAK/Dubai appear to offer similar demand drivers to Singapore, which could point to outsized return on invested capital.”

The analysts noted that Dubai/RAK possesses certain benefits compared to Singapore, such as a larger population, increased tourism rates, and a broader selection of five-star hotels. 

How the UAE Might Evolve into a $5 Billion Casino Industry 

The GGR forecast estimated by Morgan Stanley, ranging from $3 billion to $5 billion, is feasible. Other research companies have earlier projected that Wynn Al Marjan Island, set to debut in early 2027, might achieve $1.4 billion in annual GGR once it reaches full operation. 

This suggests that the Wynn property alone might account for nearly half of the $3 billion, but to reach that figure and beyond, additional factors must be considered. These factors encompass contributions from MGM's casino, the overall number of gaming establishments allowed in the UAE, and whether locals are allowed to gamble. 

Morgan Stanley stated that as the gaming regulatory process advances, the UAE might ultimately sanction more integrated resorts than the two located in Singapore, yet the final count of gaming venues in the Emirates remains uncertain. Last year, MGM's CEO Bill Hornbuckle stated that the number could reach up to four in the long run. 

Morgan Stanley mentioned that most international guests at UAE casinos are expected to come from Europe and Southern Asia. 

Additional Comparisons of Singapore and UAE Casinos 

A significant factor in the GGR future of UAE casinos may hinge on whether local residents are allowed to gamble at these establishments. The Emirates possess significant oil riches, and although the count of millionaires is smaller than in Singapore, the UAE's recent increase in ultra-high net worth individuals has surpassed that of Singapore, according to Morgan Stanley. 

The bank stated that UAE casinos are improbable to undermine competing properties in other areas, pointing to the introduction of the two integrated resorts in Singapore as an example. 

“Historically, we have seen limited impact of new gaming markets cannibalising existing ones. For example, Singapore opened two of its casinos in 2010 — with 2011 GGR of US$6 billion — but Macau still saw a US$9.9 billion increase (+42 percent year-on-year) in its GGR in 2011,” wrote the analysts.